Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.113792 14.141016 16.354225 18.943461 21.882781 25.108926 28.910786
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 8.426314 11.045673 14.193744 18.226626 23.223372 29.176418 36.767201
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.158916 8.948804 12.595653 17.643550 24.370241 32.936959 44.568331
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.875268 7.753464 11.799473 17.779561 26.244863 37.627484 53.879264
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.852583 6.664192 10.889499 17.514977 27.409394 41.358404 62.154098
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.355298 6.240299 10.829821 18.392230 30.196080 47.491093 74.188351
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.858450 5.702394 10.479852 18.728801 32.144669 52.511041 84.961616
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.413483 5.155348 10.009774 18.772900 33.586207 56.827105 94.954099
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.054368 4.687029 9.587555 18.812102 34.975628 61.115696 105.156323
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.935840 4.660177 9.940659 20.218146 38.744923 69.426947 122.201544
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.769380 4.500096 10.014741 21.114373 41.696405 76.591296 137.845199
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.612848 4.328866 10.036892 21.902522 44.505109 83.685524 153.789663
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.373978 3.931201 9.563513 21.719760 45.605660 88.075241 165.734393
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.118374 3.434495 8.804484 20.874987 45.393328 90.178031 173.968783
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.919708 3.029907 8.175195 20.204927 45.431197 92.704707 183.086761
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.804005 2.817526 7.946998 20.352744 47.083038 98.271832 197.935403
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.681147 2.551151 7.542628 20.053098 47.783721 102.094111 209.836330
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.637886 2.512930 7.696680 21.038972 51.239132 111.369393 232.302281
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.572142 2.385602 7.598970 21.417013 53.420070 118.295384 250.725132
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.501722 2.222448 7.377505 21.466462 54.882934 123.890201 266.919562
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.440459 2.072635 7.165922 21.510477 56.329406 129.531472 283.497302
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.434441 2.125520 7.541923 23.089802 61.383812 142.800681 315.621660
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.410344 2.102546 7.691381 24.095629 65.190115 153.705363 343.594588